Moving Beyond Uncertainty: Rethinking Climate Models and Tipping Points

5 November 15:00-16:30 CET

Moving Beyond Uncertainty: Rethinking Climate Models and Tipping Points

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a webinar on uncertainty in Climate Models and Tipping Points .

As climate change accelerates, it's vital to confront the deep uncertainties in climate models, especially when it comes to tipping points. This webinar will explore the origins of these uncertainties and shift the focus from asking when a model is "good enough" to considering when it becomes too unrealistic to be useful. Approaching consensus on how to deal with such uncertainties is important when working on climate tipping points. By moving beyond traditional approaches to modeling, we can improve the information available for society and policy decisions. This event is essential for climate experts, policymakers, and anyone invested in the future of climate action.

Presentations

Dave Stainforth (London School of Economics) Deep uncertainties in climate projections
Thomas Stocker (University of Bern) How to approach consensus on climate tipping points and why it is important.
Q&A/ Discussion

Moderated by Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh).

The recording is provided below:

Back to series overview.

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Speakers

David Stainforth
London School of Economics

Prof. David Stainforth is an expert in uncertainty analysis and climate change. Based at the London School of Economics he has a BA in Physics and a doctorate in “uncertainty and confidence in predictions of climate change”, both from Oxford University. He researches and publishes widely on climate modelling, nonlinear dynamical systems, climate economics, and the philosophy of climate science. His recent book, “Predicting Our Climate Future” is available from Oxford University Press.

Thomas Stocker
University of Bern

Thomas Stocker is Professor Emeritus at the University of Bern in Switzerland. From 1993 to 2024 he lead the Division of Climate and Environmental Physics, and served as Co-Chair of IPCC WGI in AR5. He worked on abrupt climate change, tipping points, glacial-interglacial cycles and future projections developing and employing climate models of reduced complexity, and lead the Swiss contribution to greenhouse gas reconstruction of the past 800,000 years using an Antarctic ice core. He initiated the unsuccessful Swiss proposal for an IPCC Special Report on Tipping Points in AR7.

Gabi Hegerl (Moderator)
(University of Edinburgh)

Gabriele Hegerl ‘s is professor of climate system science at the University of Edinburgh. Her research focuses on understanding the causes of climate change and and change in extremes, and using observations to constrain predictions of future climate change. Her work has determined causes of change in temperature, rainfall, and extreme events and she had key roles in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments of climate change. Gabriele is a fellow of the Royal Society.

All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Earth Commission

The Earth Commission is a major scientific assessment, hosted by Future Earth, to define a safe and just corridor for people and planet. The Commission will inform the creation of science-based targets, the “1.5-degree equivalents”, to help maintain and protect critical global commons – our shared climate, land, biodiversity, freshwater, atmosphere and oceans. The Earth Commission is an international team of leading natural and social scientists and five working groups of additional experts. It forms the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.

World Climate Research Programme

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) leads the way in addressing frontier scientific questions related to the coupled climate system — questions that are too large and too complex to be tackled by a single nation, agency or scientific discipline. Through international science coordination and partnerships, WCRP contributes to advancing our understanding of the multi-scale dynamic interactions between natural and social systems that affect climate.